From Decrypt · By Decrypt Agent
In brief
Long-term Bitcoin holders own about 4 million BTC bought between $85,000 and $118,000, mostly in 2025, according to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode.
Bloomberg Intelligence puts the average cost basis of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF holders just under $82,000, with Bitcoin trading around $81,600.
The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday in a 10-2 vote, with traders putting the odds of a December hike above 70% beforehand.
Bitcoin's long-term holders are sitting on losses on about 4 million BTC bought between $85,000 and $118,000, and many may sell if the price climbs back toward that level, according to a note from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode.
Glassnode, which defines long-term holders as those holding coins for more than 155 days, said most of that block was bought in 2025. More than half of all long-term holder coins were bought above the current price, according to the note, published Wednesday ahead of the Federal Reserve's rate decision.
$85K keeps turning $BTC back. Since January, Bitcoin has closed above it on only five days, never more than three in a row. It's a truly tough level to break. More in depth analysis in our latest Week on Chain report https://t.co/xy8lE3ilt3
— glassnode (@glassnode) October 28, 2026
That block is worth about $326 billion at Bitcoin's current price of around $81,400, up 1.2% over the past 24 hours but about 35% below its all-time high of $126,080.
Glassnode said a band between $84,000 and $85,000 has turned Bitcoin back four times this year, and that the asset has closed above it on only five days since January. Bitcoin last broke above it in September, peaking at $87,100.
ETF holders are near break-even too. Glassnode puts the average price U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs paid for their coins at $81,500. Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst James Seyffart estimated the figure at just under $82,000 in a tweet on Wednesday, adding that Bitcoin has hovered around that level since the end of August.
Seyffart's chart put ETF holders' average unrealized loss at about $2.63 billion as of Monday. In replies, he said the estimate tracks only fund flows, not what secondary-market buyers paid.
BitcoinBTC · USD$81,241+0.04%Oct 22Oct 24Oct 26Oct 27Oct 29$82.0k$81.2k$80.4k$79.6k24h HighHigh$81,77924h LowLow$79,636VolVol$1.3B→Buy Bitcoin with USDTPowered by JupiterPrice data by CoinGeckoCoinGeckoMore Bitcoin news and projections →Rates, flows and the carry trade
The Fed held its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday in a 10-2 vote, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissenting in favor of a hike. Traders had put the odds of another quarter-point hike in December above 70% before the decision.