From CoinDesk · By Oliver Knight, Omkar Godbole
Bitcoin was little changed since midnight UTC near $82,100 after bouncing from a dip to about $81,600 at around 03:30 UTC.
Celestia jumped 16%, injective rose 7.7% and layerzero added 7.3%, leaving more than two-thirds of CoinDesk 100 members higher and the CoinDesk 5 flat.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh declined to signal what the central bank will do later this month, and the odds of an October interest-rate increase fell to about 15% from almost 30%.
Bitcoin BTC$82,071.33 was little changed since midnight UTC, trading around $82,100 after bouncing from a dip to about $81,600 at around 03:30 UTC. It’s comfortably above Thursday’s brief break below $80,000, its first in a month.
Altcoins edged ahead, with ether ETH$2,463.74 adding 0.5% near $2,450 and the CoinDesk 80 (CD80) gaining 0.46%, while the bitcoin-heavy CoinDesk 5 (CD5) held steady. Celestia (TIA) jumped 16%, injective INJ$9.2199 rose 7.7% and layerzero ZRO$2.2008 added 7.3%, leaving four in every five CoinDesk 100 Index (CD100) members higher and lifting CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season index to 60 from 50 a day earlier.
Asian equities steadied after Thursday’s rout, with South Korea’s Kospi closing 2.05% higher and Japan’s Nikkei up 1.39%, while S&P 500 futures were little changed after the index snapped a three-day losing streak.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh declined to signal the central bank’s intentions for its meeting later this month in a speech at the IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok, with the odds of an October interest-rate increase dropping to about 15% from roughly 30%, according to the CME Fedwatch tool. Treasury yields were largely stable.
Derivatives positioning
Trading volume cools, leverage resets: Crypto futures volume slid 20% over 24 hours to $200 billion, while open interest rose 2% to $142.21 billion. Liquidations dropped to $311 million from nearly $1 billion yesterday. Quieter trading with positions still building suggests the forced selling has run its course.
Sellers ease off: The 24-hour long/short taker volume ratio is balanced, compared with shorts making up 52% yesterday. Aggressive selling has faded.
BTC, ETH and SOL gains lack fresh long bets: Bitcoin's notional open interest rose just 0.3% against a 1% price gain, which means the number of contracts outstanding slipped slightly. Ether and solana show the same pattern, with open interest up by less than their spot prices. The moves look driven by traders closing shorts, not by new long positions.
XRP traders are cashing out into the rally: XRP's open interest fell 1% while its spot price gained 1.4%, so contracts were closed on a rise. Its 24-hour OI-adjusted cumulative volume delta, which tracks net aggressive buying and selling at market prices rather than passive limit orders, is also negative. The bounce has little support from derivatives traders.