From Decrypt · By Jose Antonio Lanz
In brief
Bitcoin fell to around $68,500 Friday, its lowest level in 12 weeks, erasing much of its late-summer recovery.
Futures markets overwhelmingly expect a December Fed rate hike, while one official has raised the possibility of a larger-than-usual increase.
Bitcoin's daily RSI has fallen to 25.4, but bearish momentum remains strong, with immediate support around $67,650.
Bitcoin fell to roughly $68,500 on Friday, hitting its lowest price in 12 weeks as renewed U.S. inflation worries and investor withdrawals pushed the cryptocurrency further into the red.
BTC was down about 4.5% over 24 hours and 9.5% for the week, according to Friday market data. Ethereum traded near $1,925, while Solana slipped below $80 as selling spread across major cryptocurrencies.
PredictCryptoBTC Lows in November
55,0006%YesNo57,5009%YesNo60,00016%YesNo62,50028%YesNo65,00050%YesNo+5 more outcomes+4 more outcomesNEW$576.77 volumeCloses: Dec 1, 2026, 04:59 UTCCloses: Dec 1, 2026, 04:59 UTCThe latest slide has erased most of Bitcoin's late-summer recovery. But not all of it: BTC remains approximately 16% above its late-June low near $59,000, even after retreating roughly 21% from its autumn peak around $86,000.
Inflation raises the stakes for December
Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee warned Friday that inflation had spread beyond energy and tariffs, with rising services and medical costs and demand from AI data centers adding to price pressures.
Bitcoin price data. Image: Tradingview
“Are we on a path back to 2%? My feeling right now is we are not and we've got to deal with that,” Goolsbee said according to Reuters.
Goolsbee did not explicitly endorse a December rate hike. But other Fed officials have been more direct.
On Tuesday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he supported raising interest rates by at least 25 basis points, or 0.25 percentage points, at the December 8-9 meeting.
He also established a threshold for considering something more aggressive.
“If the October CPI inflation data out later today are similar to the past two monthly readings—with core CPI inflation around 0.3 percent or even higher—then a stronger policy move may be needed,” Waller said in his official remarks.
The report subsequently showed core CPI rising exactly 0.3%, exceeding the 0.2% forecast and meeting Waller's condition for considering a 50-basis-point increase.
Markets have responded accordingly. Futures-based rate probabilities as of November 13 showed a 91.9% probability of a quarter-point increase and an 8.1% probability of a half-point increase.
Those figures reflect trader expectations, not a decision by the Fed. The central bank's current target range is 3.75% to 4.00%.