From CoinDesk · By Oliver Knight, Omkar Godbole
Bitcoin steadied near $80,400, little changed since midnight UTC, after dipping to around $79,300 during the Asian morning.
The DeFi index was the only CoinDesk index to gain, with uniswap and ethena rising despite Arthur Hayes’ weekend sale of his fund’s directional book.
The Fed, which raised rates in September, decides on Wednesday, with CME’s FedWatch tool showing a 90% chance of no change.
Bitcoin BTC$84,459.46 steadied near $80,400 after dipping to around $79,300 during the Asian morning, leaving it little changed since midnight UTC. Altcoins were mixed, with ether ETH$2,490.55 dropping 0.2% and the DeFi index (DFX) the only CoinDesk index to gain. The tone was set at the weekend, when Arthur Hayes said his Maelstrom fund sold its entire directional book, including 6,400 ether due to macro and geopolitical risk.
S&P 500 index futures rose around 0.3% after Friday’s selloff in U.S. stocks, while oil retreated, with U.S. crude falling around 2% to near $101 a barrel and Brent slipping to around $110 as Qatari mediators arrived in Tehran on Sunday and President Donald Trump said there would be no strike that day, though he kept the option open.
The Fed, which raised interest rates in September, decides again on Wednesday. The CME’s FedWatch tool shows a 90% chance of no change and around an 80% chance of another increase in December. Spot bitcoin ETF flows are also in focus after $138 million of outflows on Friday, taking the two-day exit to $772 million, according to data from Farside Investors.
Derivatives positioning
Crypto futures take a breather: Open interest (OI) rose 0.85% to $139.9 billion in 24 hours while volume fell 1.78%. Liquidations dropped 71% to $153 million. The long/short taker volume ratio split of 50.34% to 49.66% shows no tilt.
Bitcoin barely moved and positioning barely changed: The BTC price rose 0.20% and open interest rose 0.84%, so only a small amount of money came in. Volume fell 7.21%. Ether looked the same, with open interest up 0.45% and the price adding 0.23%.
Funding is mildly positive across the board, with no crowded corner: The 24-hour heatmap for major cryptocurrencies is a uniform green. USDE and TRX sit at the low end. Nobody is paying a heavy premium to hold longs, meaning demand for leverage is nothing out of ordinary.
ZEC added money as the price rose: Open interest grew 8.17% and the price advanced 3.84%, so about 4% of new money came in. Volume rose 19.11%. Funding of 0.0063% is modest, so the new positions are not expensive to hold.
ENA's rally drew money: Open interest rose 16.85% over 24 hours against an 8.36% price gain, with volume up 81.51%. The past hour showed a 2.04% fall in open interest. Some of the money that came in during the rally has started to leave.