From Decrypt · By Decrypt Agent
In brief
Bitcoin is trading near $83,330, up 0.6% on the day but down around 3% on the week.
Analysts say rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar are weighing on Bitcoin, even as bets on an October Fed rate hike fade.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $21.13 million on Friday after two days of heavy outflows.
Bitcoin inched higher on Monday, trading at $83,327, up 0.6% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data. The asset is still down 2.9% over the past week.
The cryptocurrency has "struggled against an increasingly challenging macroeconomic backdrop," Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, told Decrypt.
BitcoinBTC · USD$83,396−2.92%Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 10Oct 12$86.6k$84.6k$82.7k$80.7k24h HighHigh$84,23124h LowLow$82,957VolVol$919.6MMarket projectionsOdds by MyriadToday$82,000 to $84,000$82k–$84k82% chance→Buy Bitcoin with USDTPowered by JupiterPrice data by CoinGeckoCoinGeckoMore Bitcoin news and projections →"Rising energy prices have reignited inflation concerns, pushing US Treasury yields higher and strengthening the dollar as investors reassess the Federal Reserve's interest-rate trajectory," she said. "Despite its reputation as a potential alternative store of value, recent price action suggests investors continue to treat Bitcoin predominantly as a risk asset rather than a reliable geopolitical hedge."
Traders see a 19.4% chance of a 25-basis-point hike at the Fed's October 28 meeting, down from 22.1% a week ago and 42.5% a month ago, according to CME FedWatch. Prediction markets Polymarket and Myriad both put the odds of a hike at 17% (Disclaimer: Myriad is a prediction market developed by Decrypt's parent company Dastan).
A shift in rate expectations should in principle support Bitcoin, Bitfire's Jade Shi said, but elevated long-term Treasury yields mean broader financial conditions have not fully eased. That helps explain why Bitcoin has held up without decisively clearing resistance, she said.
Myriad: How high will Bitcoin go? Click to make your prediction.
Yields and ETF flows
The 10-year Treasury yield stands at 5.24% and the 30-year yield at 5.60%, according to CNBC, having hit 52-week highs of 5.37% and 5.73% last week. Yields reached their highest levels in more than two decades, CoinShares head of research James Butterfill wrote on Thursday.
Butterfill argued that if those yields increasingly reflect concerns about U.S. public finances rather than stronger growth, Bitcoin begins to look "less like a conventional risk asset and more like an alternative to government-issued money."
Digital asset fund flows have lost momentum after $11.1 billion of inflows since mid-July, according to CoinShares.