From Decrypt · By Jose Antonio Lanz
In brief
Bitcoin trades at $82,164, just above the a key support line, after touching $83,040 today and giving back part of the gain.
Oil near $108, 3.7% inflation, and a 10-year yield above 5% keep rate-hike fears alive, while spot Bitcoin ETFs lost about $910 million in two weeks.
Technical indicators on the charts suggest caution for traders in the near term.
Bitcoin continues to defy seasonal ‘Uptober” expectations, as macroeconomic factors weigh heavily on the digital asset.
Bitcoin is hovering around $82,000 on Monday, up about 1% on the day, after tagging $83,000 early and handing some of it back.
Myriad: How low will Bitcoin go? Click to make your prediction.
Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, trades near $108 a barrel after weekend attacks on Persian Gulf tankers and Russian crude facilities. Pricey oil raises the cost of fuel and freight, which feeds inflation. The consumer price index (CPI), what households pay, rose 3.7% in September from a year earlier, while the producer price index (PPI), what businesses pay, jumped 6.3%, the biggest annual rise since 2022.
That likely pushes the Federal Reserve toward raising interest rates, which makes borrowing costlier. Markets see roughly a 15% chance of a quarter-point hike next week. You can see it in Treasury yields, the return investors earn lending to the U.S. government: when hike bets rise, bond prices fall and yields climb. The 10-year sits at 5.08% and the 2-year at 4.72%, CNBC data shows.
A near risk-free 5% competes with stocks and crypto for the same money, and it raises the debt costs of the AI giants that borrowed heavily for data centers. Bitcoin trades with that risk basket, so AI selloffs tend to drag it down.
The pain was concentrated in companies paying for the AI buildout with borrowed money. The Nasdaq Composite fell more than 2% on Friday and closed its worst week since June, with AMD down 6% and Micron down 5.6% on the day. CoreWeave, a so-called “neocloud” that rents out AI computing power, lost about 24% over the week, and it funds much of its data center spending with debt and new share sales rather than cash flow.
BitcoinBTC · USD$82,017−0.6%Oct 12Oct 14Oct 16Oct 17Oct 19$83.9k$82.7k$81.4k$80.2k24h HighHigh$83,03524h LowLow$80,672VolVol$1.2BMarket projectionsOdds by MyriadThis weekAbove $82,000Above $82k51% chance→Buy Bitcoin with USDTPowered by JupiterPrice data by CoinGeckoCoinGeckoMore Bitcoin news and projections →Hotter inflation and higher yields make that kind of debt costlier to carry, so the stock selloff and the bond market are really the same story.
Bitcoin price: technical analysis
Bitcoin trades at $82,164 on the daily chart, up 0.18% in today’s forming candlestick, sitting right on the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement at $81,603. Fibonacci levels mark where pullbacks tend to pause, and 23.6% is the shallowest, so holding it keeps the climb from the $87,422 high intact. The bounce is weak, though: a week of small candle bodies says neither side is in control.