From Decrypt · By Decrypt Staff
In brief
Galaxy’s Alex Thorn argues Bitcoin bottomed in June and is now in an accumulation phase, calling it “an attractive time to buy and hold bitcoin.”
Bitcoin has closed five straight weeks above its 50-week average, and its market value never fell below its realized value, a first for any bear market.
Thorn cites $40 trillion in federal debt and 5% Treasury yields as fuel for Bitcoin. Galaxy and Thorn disclose holding Bitcoin.
Galaxy Digital’s head of research thinks the worst is over for Bitcoin.
In a report published Monday, Alex Thorn, Galaxy’s head of firmwide research, argued that Bitcoin’s bear market ended in June and that the asset is now in an accumulation phase. “Our conclusion is simple: we believe now is an attractive time to buy and hold bitcoin,” he wrote.
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The call comes as Bitcoin struggles for direction. It traded at around $80,000 on Thursday, 36% below its October 2025 high but 39% above its June 30 low. On Sunday, Bitcoin briefly slipped below $80,000 to about $79,700, according to CoinGecko.
Thorn’s case starts with the charts. Bitcoin spent 44 weeks below its 50-week moving average before reclaiming it in September, and the week ended Oct. 18 marked its fifth straight weekly close above that line. Since 2011, Bitcoin has reclaimed the average after a stretch of 20 weeks or more four times. In each case, the price never closed more than 8.4% below the reclaim level over the following year and eventually regained its prior all-time high.
The halving cycle, the roughly four-year event when rewards for Bitcoin miners are cut in half thereby reducing new supply, points the same way. The three previous cycles bottomed between 777 and 912 days after a halving, and Thursday was day 916. The latest downturn was also the shallowest on record: a 53% drop, compared with declines of 77% to 93% in past cycles.
Onchain data appears to back that up. For the first time in any bear market, Bitcoin’s market value never fell below its realized value, the average price at which every coin last moved. The ratio between the two bottomed at 1.10, compared with lows of 0.56, 0.69 and 0.75 in prior cycles.
BitcoinBTC · USD$79,821−2.81%Oct 19Oct 21Oct 23Oct 24Oct 26$84.8k$83.1k$81.3k$79.6k24h HighHigh$80,82524h LowLow$79,332VolVol$856.3M→Buy Bitcoin with USDTPowered by JupiterPrice data by CoinGeckoCoinGeckoMore Bitcoin news and projections →Short-term holders, whose coins carried the recovery from $58,525, have an average cost of $74,811 and sit about 9% in profit. Yet the spent-output profit ratio, which tracks whether coins are being sold at a gain, sits at 1.009, suggesting few are cashing out.