From CoinDesk · By Francisco Rodrigues
Corporate accounts drove 78% of Mercado Bitcoin’s election-day volume as companies sought to hedge currency risk while traditional markets were shut, the exchange said.
USDT volume on Mercado Bitcoin jumped nearly 800% and bitcoin volume surged 865% from the previous Sunday.
The Ibovespa fell 14% Monday, its worst day since 2020, after incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva beat Flávio Bolsonaro, whom prediction markets had priced as a roughly 80% favorite.
Brazilian companies entered a crypto trading frenzy on Sunday to protect their treasuries from the outcome of an election that saw incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, known as Lula, unexpectedly beat Flávio Bolsonaro.
Corporate accounts generated 78% of trading on crypto exchange Mercado Bitcoin, with turnover in Tether’s dollar-pegged stablecoin, USDT, jumping nearly 800% from the week before and more than triple the average of the four preceding Sundays. Trading in bitcoin BTC$84,459.46 surged 865% compared with the previous Sunday, the exchange said.
Lula’s platform of increased social spending and a ban on online betting that would reduce tax income sparked concerns the country’s finances would suffer if he won, adding to pressure on the real and keeping borrowing costs high. Rising debt, new spending commitments and limited scope for tax increases would make that task harder.
“For investors, this reinforces the logic of not relying only on the real,” Pedro Fontes, a research analyst at Mercado Bitcoin, wrote in an analysis shared with CoinDesk. “In this scenario of higher exchange rate pressure, stablecoins, such as USDT and USDC, are a simple way to dollarize part of your assets, at any time and starting from low amounts.”
Stronger opposition in Congress could complicate efforts to address fiscal problems, reinforcing the appeal of assets whose prices are set in global markets, he said.
Corporate concerns materialized the next day, when the benchmark Ibovespa stock index crashed 14% in its worst performance since March 2020 and the dollar jumped more than 8% against the real, its largest daily gain since 1999.
Unexpected turnaround
The response had been different three weeks earlier, when Bolsonaro finished ahead of Lula in the first round of voting. The Ibovespa jumped 7.7% and the dollar weakened more than 4% against the real as investors anticipated a change of government and tighter control over public spending.
Lula´s victory made him the first presidential candidate in Brazil’s modern democracy to secure a victory after finishing in second place. Even so, Brazil’s companies took a cautious stance.
“The main driver of volume was companies seeking to protect their treasuries,” Mercado Bitcoin said. “Retail customers were responsible for just 22% of trading volume, while MB’s corporate clients generated 78% of the total for Sunday.”