From Cointelegraph · By William Suberg
Bitcoin (BTC) begins the last week of October fighting to hold $80,000 support ahead of a busy week of US macro data and earnings reports.
Key points:
Markets see the Fed holding interest rates in their current 3.75-4% range at its meeting on Wednesday as Brent crude cools to $110 per barrel.
South Korea’s KOSPI Composite Index resumes downside ahead of a major round of US corporate earnings results.
Bitcoin is on track to end October down 4%, copying 2025 performance, as $80,000 support appears weak.
Markets see Fed rate-hike pause with oil still above $100
The US Federal Reserve is in focus for macro analysts this week as it will decide the next move on the federal funds rate on Wednesday. Markets will be watching the rate decision by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), as well as language used by Fed chair Kevin Warsh at the accompanying press conference.
Markets have little doubt over what officials will decide, seeing over 90% odds that rates will stay in their current 3.75-4% range. FedWatch data shows consensus favoring a 0.25% hike at the December FOMC meeting.
Fed target-rate probabilities (screenshot). Source: CME Group
Commenting, economist Robin Brooks argued that such expectations were a gift to Warsh, who would not need to fight external demands to change course.
“After very contentious Fed meetings earlier in 2026, this week’s meeting gets zero interest in markets, which price only 12% odds of a hike. That’s nothing versus how markets tried to push Warsh into hiking back in July. A temporary reprieve for Warsh,” he summarized.
In separate analysis last week, Brooks saw a rate pause as all but inevitable, even amid rising oil prices and growing concerns over military escalation in the Middle East. Brent crude reached $117 per barrel on Friday, its highest level since March 19, before dropping to around $110 on Monday. Even a rise to $125, however, would not force the Fed to change course, he continued.
“The debt crisis in France would escalate sharply, anxiety around all the AI and data center debt would increase and the S&P 500 would tumble. That just isn’t a setting where the Fed is itching to hike,” Brooks wrote.
“If anything, financial conditions would be tightening sharply, so the last thing you’d want to do is hike.”
CFDs on Brent crude oil one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
On Thursday, new US macro data will be released in the form of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, known as the Fed’s “preferred” inflation gauge. Last month, PCE came in lower than expected at 3.4% year-on-year, but analysts explained that the drop was a result of changes to the way certain index elements are calculated.