From CryptoPotato · By Shayan Markets
Ethereum is trading near $2.5K after a sharp correction from the $2.7K resistance area, with the latest price action putting a key support zone under pressure. While ETH remains above its daily 100-day and 200-day moving averages, weakening momentum and a recent rebound in the exchange supply ratio suggest that traders should watch for further volatility before assuming the broader recovery will resume.
Ethereum Price Analysis: The Daily Chart
Ethereum’s daily chart shows a strong recovery from the June lows near $1.5K, followed by a sharp rally that carried the asset through the $2K region and into the $2.4K area. ETH subsequently climbed toward the $2.7K resistance zone, where it consolidated for the last few weeks before sellers regained control in early October.
The latest rejection from the $2.7K supply zone has pushed ETH back toward $2.4K, the immediate support area. Buyers have started to respond after the latest sell-off, as yesterday’s candle wicked through the support and bounced, but the rebound remains modest and has yet to establish a convincing bullish reversal.
If this support holds, ETH could attempt to recover toward the major resistance around $2.7K. A sustained breakout above the level would improve the near-term structure and potentially reopen the path toward $3K.
However, a decisive daily close below the $2.4K support zone would weaken the recovery structure, as the ascending channel that has carried the price higher from June lows would also get broken to the downside. In that scenario, the next notable support area lies around $2K-$2.2K where the 100-day and 200-day moving averages have recently printed a bullish crossover.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also dropped to approximately 40, indicating weakening momentum and a shift toward bearish territory. Although the indicator is approaching oversold levels, it has not yet reached the conventional threshold below 30. A recovery above 50 would provide a stronger indication that buyers are regaining control, while continued weakness below 40 would leave ETH vulnerable to another test of support.
ETH/USDT 4-Hour Chart
The 4-hour chart provides a clearer picture of the recent selling pressure. Ethereum spent much of late September consolidating between approximately $2.6K and $2.8K before breaking lower aggressively earlier this week. The move accelerated as ETH lost the $2.6K lows, eventually driving the price toward the $2.4K region.
The latest candles show a modest recovery toward $2.5K following the sharp downside moves. This suggests that buyers have stepped in around support, but the rebound is still too limited to confirm that the correction has ended.
The immediate resistance area is around $2.6K to $2.7K, where ETH must climb through the bearish imbalance formed during the drop. On the downside, the $2.4K support zone is the first level to monitor. ETH has reacted positively from this area, but a renewed breakdown could push the price below this region, and the market would potentially test the broader $2.2K support zone if this scenario materializes.
Meanwhile, the 4-hour RSI has recovered from a deeply oversold reading to approximately 40. This rebound indicates that selling pressure may be easing, but momentum remains relatively weak and below the neutral 50 level. The indicator would need to strengthen alongside price to support a more convincing recovery.
On-Chain Analysis
The exchange supply ratio measures the proportion of Ethereum’s circulating supply held on centralized exchanges relative to the broader supply tracked by the metric. It can help illustrate changes in the amount of ETH available on exchanges, although it does not independently establish whether holders intend to sell.
The chart shows a prolonged decline in the exchange supply ratio throughout much of 2026. The indicator fell from approximately 0.142 at the beginning of the year toward 0.124 in September. Over the same period, ETH’s price recovered from its summer lows and climbed toward $2.7K.
This behavior is notable. The declining ratio suggests that exchange-held supply has generally become smaller relative to the total supply represented by the metric. Reduced exchange availability can be consistent with accumulation or withdrawals into self-custody, potentially lowering the amount of ETH immediately available for spot selling. However, the chart alone cannot establish the reasons behind these movements.
More recently, however, the exchange supply ratio has rebounded from its lows. The increase is relatively modest compared with the decline seen earlier in the year, but it warrants monitoring alongside ETH’s latest price correction.
If the ratio continues to rise while ETH struggles below $2.7K, it could suggest that a larger proportion of supply is returning to exchanges, potentially increasing available selling liquidity. That interpretation would be more concerning if accompanied by continued price weakness and stronger exchange inflows, and could overwhelm demand and push the price even lower in the coming weeks.
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