From Coinpedia · By Yash Jain
The American Reserve Modernization Act (ARMA / H.R. 8957) cleared the House Financial Services Committee on September 16, 2026. Yet Polymarket currently gives “US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027” approximately 4% to 9.5% probability. A prior high of around 60% was set in December 2025 during the initial executive order era.
The 70-day window from today (October 24, 2026) to the expiration of the 119th Congress on January 3, 2027 contains:
A House floor vote that remains unscheduled.
A Senate with no active companion bill or committee process.
A filibuster threshold requiring 60 votes in a 53-seat Republican majority.
A National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) attachment path that has historically failed for non-defense crypto legislation.
Below is the step-by-step probability audit of each remaining legislative gate.
Core Key Metrics (As of October 26, 2026)
70 Days: Calendar days remaining until the 119th Congress expires on January 3, 2027.
4% – 9.5%: Polymarket Odds for a statutory reserve by year-end 2026.
49–50: Vote failure of the CLARITY Act in the Senate on September 15, 2026.
$0: Open-market BTC purchases executed by the Treasury under Executive Order 14233.
The Legislative Clock: 70 Days & A Compressed Lame-Duck Calendar
The 119th Congress constitutional deadline is January 3, 2027. Within the remaining 70 days, H.R. 8957 must clear a House floor vote, pass the Senate, and receive a presidential signature.
The usable legislative calendar is far narrower than 70 calendar days:
House members recessed on September 17 and return only following the November midterm elections.
The post-election lame-duck session (running from mid-November to mid-December) typically contains only 10 to 15 actual legislative/working days on Capitol Hill.
Senate floor time during a lame-duck session is heavily monopolized by mandatory must-pass items: federal appropriations, the NDAA conference report, and judicial confirmations. Non-essential standalone legislation lacks institutional priority.
What ARMA Is and What Was Rewritten to Remove
When introduced on May 21, 2026, by Rep. Nick Begich (R-AK) and Rep. Jared Golden (D-ME), H.R. 8957 authorized the Treasury to buy up to 200,000 BTC annually over five years (targeting 1 million BTC total).
However, the text passed by the Financial Services Committee on September 16 in a 28–21 party-line vote was radically modified under Chairman Bryan Steil’s substitute amendment:
Purchase Authorizations Removed: Stripped the mandatory open-market buying authority and replaced it with a 180-day Treasury feasibility study.