From Decrypt · By Ryan S. Gladwin
In brief
A Polymarket trader known as 0xa2 topped the platform’s daily leaderboard with $917,000 of profits after Democrats took both the House and the Senate during the US midterm elections.
Most of those gains are unrealized, sitting in an active market that Republicans won’t win any swing states while Alaska waits on a final result.
Polymarket gives the Alaska upset a 14% chance. Two weeks ago, its traders gave Lula a 20% chance in Brazil, and he won.
A "blue wave” swept the U.S. midterms as the Democrats took control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, in a crushing blow to President Donald Trump.
Polymarket predictor 0xA2 is the platform's most profitable trader over the past 24 hours, according to the site's daily leaderboard. They are currently $917,000 in profit, although most of that is still in an active position that has a real (ableit small) chance of upset.
The user wagered $609,644 on the Republicans not winning any Senate swing states when odds sat at just 36%, a market which has since surged to 87%. This turned his stake in to $1.48 million, putting him $860,000 in the green.
Its important to remember: these are unrealized gains and could drop at any moment as 0xA2 waits for Alaska's final verdict. Polymarket traders put a 14% chance on an upset—and while this may seem small, the site has seen similarly sized upsets recently—as in the case of Brazil's presidential election two weeks ago.
0xA2 also profited $106,115 by predicting that the Democrats would win the Texas Senate—profits that have been realized. Oddly, the user's second largest active position is $1.42 million on the U.S. not confirming that aliens exist before 2027.
PredictCryptoWill the Clarity Act be signed into law in 2026?
3%97%YesNo$5.82K volumeCloses: Jan 1, 2027, 04:59 UTCCloses: Jan 1, 2027, 04:59 UTC"Election night showed how quickly round-the-clock markets move when traditional exchanges are closed. As polls began closing at 6pm ET, Kalshi’s odds of a Democratic sweep went from about 74% to 99%," Kelly Ye, Head of Research at digital asset management firm Talos, said in a note shared with Decrypt. "Prediction-market trading peaked between 8pm and 10pm ET, led by a small number of large trades."
It was a big day for Polymarket users profiting, with the top 10 users on the platform profiting more than $170,000, per the leaderboard. To put that into perspective, on a fairly random day in March this year, the top daily winner on Polymarket profited $154,000, according to the WayBackMachine, and the 10th biggest winner that day gained $29,700.
Prediction markets and elections
The midterms attracted major activity on leading prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi. According to Precition.com data, midterm markets attracted more than $546 million in notional volume over the past two weeks.