From Decrypt · By Tyler Warner
Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. And check out our daily news show 'FOMO HOUR' covering all of the top stories and market action.
GM!
Today’s top news:
Crypto majors red but rebound off Monday bottom; BTC at $83.4k
Alts fall 5-12% in nasty drawdown; only 4 of top 100 coins in green
ETF outflows continue, now deep red for October for BTC and ETH
Blur announces shutdown; front end deprecated by Nov 12
Robinhood Chain leaders continue fall despite Vlad comments; Stonk goes sub-$100M
BitcoinBTC · USD$83,346−3.33%Oct 6Oct 8Oct 10Oct 11Oct 13$86.6k$84.6k$82.7k$80.7k24h HighHigh$84,07424h LowLow$81,018VolVol$1.3BMarket projectionsOdds by MyriadToday$82,000 to $84,000$82k–$84k73% chanceThis weekBelow $84,000Below $84k59% chance→Buy Bitcoin with USDTPowered by JupiterPrice data by CoinGeckoCoinGeckoMore Bitcoin news and projections →📉 Bitcoin Gets Spooked as ‘Uptober’ Lets Down
Uptober has been anything but. BTC is sitting at $83K, down 3.2% on the week. It topped out near $87K early last week, then slid to $81K on Monday, a roughly 7% drawdown, before bouncing modestly.
Sentiment followed price. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 56 (neutral), down from 67 a week ago and well off its August peak of 82, the year’s high. That’s essentially back to where we were before the summer rally that had Tom Lee and CryptoQuant’s Ki Young Ju calling the end of the bear market.
Alts took it worse. Over the last 7 days, SOL is down 11%, HYPE 12%, DOGE 12%, XRP 10% and ETH 8%. Prediction markets have cooled too. Myriad odds of BTC hitting $87.5K in October fell from 55% to 45%, while a dip to $80K is now priced at 56%.
As for the drivers, the common view is that this is a macro problem, not a crypto problem:
Oil: Brent topped $101 last week on ship attacks around the Strait of Hormuz and is now trading near $110, even after Trump said the U.S. won’t go to war with Iran before the midterms.
Yields: The 30-year Treasury hit 5.70%, its highest since 2002. It’s now at 5.60%, with the 10-year at 5.24%.
ETFs: Spot BTC ETFs bled about $680M last week and another $65M yesterday. They’re net -$451M for October. ETH ETFs are even worse, with $720M in net outflows in October.
Analysts are torn on how to interpret this macro backdrop. Capital.com’s Daniela Hathorn summed it up as investors are still treating Bitcoin as a risk asset, not a geopolitical hedge. CoinShares’ James Butterfill offered the bull counterpoint, stating that if yields are rising on fears about U.S. debt rather than strong growth, BTC starts to look less like a risk asset and more like an alternative to government money.