From Coinpedia · By Rizwan Ansari
Story HighlightsMSCI will decide today whether Strategy’s MSTR stock remains in its major indexes.
Strategy could face up to $2.8 billion in passive selling after MSCI removal.
MSTR selling would not force Strategy to sell its Bitcoin holdings directly, but future buying of BTC may slow down.
Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) will decide today whether Strategy (MSTR) stays in its indexes or faces removal. If MSCI removes the stock, passive funds could sell up to $2.8 billion worth of shares by 30 November.
Advertisement The decision could also make it harder for Strategy to raise money to buy more Bitcoin, as BTC price continues to trade near $73K.
Strategy May Fail MSCI’s Screening Test – Here’s How
On 15 October, MSCI introduced a new screen for companies that may operate more like investment vehicles than traditional businesses. Five companies are currently on MSCI’s potential removal list.
They include Strategy Inc (MSTR), Japanese Bitcoin treasury firm Metaplanet, Yellow Cake, Skel Fjarfestingafelag and Upexi.
However, Strategy fits properly into MSCI’s non-operating company exclusion criteria, and its Q3 2026 financial results also show why it could fail MSCI’s screening rules.
Step 1: Check the company’s operating assets
MSCI first checks whether at least 50% of a company’s total assets come from its regular business operations.
In Q3 2026, Strategy reported $74 billion in total assets, including $68.9 billion in Bitcoin (848,517 BTC) and $5.1 billion in cash reserves. Its software business makes up only a very small part of its total assets. This means Strategy could fail MSCI’s first test.
Step 2: Five more financial tests
If a company fails the first test, MSCI checks five more financial measures. These look at the size of its business, cash flow, changes in asset values, and reliance on outside funding. A company must fail at least four of these five tests to be excluded.
Strategy’s Q3 results raise concerns in two areas:
Large changes in asset value: As Strategy reported $20.9 billion in operating income in Q3 2026, mostly from a $20.9 billion gain in the value of its Bitcoin holdings as BTC rose from $58,700 to $83,600.
Reliance on outside funding: Strategy continues to raise money through stock and preferred share sales to buy Bitcoin and pay dividends, instead of relying on income from its software business.
Strategy itself acknowledged the risk in its Q3 filing, stating that,
“Based on these criteria, we expect our Class A common stock to be excluded from the MSCI Global Investable Market Indexes.”
How Many MSTR Shares Will Be Sold?