From CoinDesk · By James Van Straten, AI Boost
Bitcoin’s recovery above its 50-week moving average and reduced speculative exposure suggest June marked the cycle low, according to Galaxy.
Rising government debt strengthens its investment case, although sustained weakness below $76,540 would challenge the firm’s technical outlook.
Bitcoin’s BTC$84,459.46 rally has stalled in recent weeks, leaving prices listless around $80,000. In a market where sentiment shifts quickly, this has led some bears to warn of a renewed price crash.
But Galaxy remains confident in bitcoin’s long-term prospects, saying it’s time to accumulate.
“We think the bear market ended in June and that bitcoin is in the accumulation phase that has preceded every prior advance,” Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy, said in a note titled “Why now is the time to add and hold BTC.”
Galaxy Digital is a U.S. financial and infrastructure firm founded in 2018 by billionaire Mike Novogratz. It is headquartered in New York City and trades on Nasdaq under the ticker GLXY.
According to Thorn, the bear market likely ended in June under $58,000, and improving price-chart signals, reduced selling pressure, and mounting fiscal risks make the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization attractive to accumulate.
He added that bitcoin has entered an accumulation phase resembling periods that preceded previous advances.
Bitcoin traded around $80,000 at the time of the article, up 38% from June lows under $58,000. Still, prices are down approximately 35% from the record high of over $126,000. Returning to that high would require a gain of roughly 53%.
Thorn highlighted bitcoin’s bullish recovery above its 50-week moving average after spending 44 weeks below it. Five consecutive weekly closes above that level have strengthened his conviction that the market had bottomed.
Positioning also supports the thesis, Thorn argued. Asset managers’ net long exposure through CME bitcoin futures had fallen 57% from the week of the record high, while several major trading firms substantially reduced ETF holdings. That’s a sign that fast money has left, leaving the market in much healthier shape.
“The fast money has left, the base stayed, and everything else is priced for perfection,” Thorn said.
Other investors have been buying the dip. Galaxy said spot bitcoin ETFs added 87,000 BTC following the June low, suggesting renewed directional demand as arbitrage activity declined.
The firm sees rising U.S. debt, persistent deficits, and rising interest costs strengthening bitcoin’s appeal as a fixed-supply asset.
Meanwhile, institutional enthusiasm for stablecoins and tokenization, alongside fading interest in bitcoin, resembles sentiment around previous market lows, according to Thorn.