From CoinDesk · By Olivier Acuna
Experts warn that a future quantum computer could expose the secret keys of wallets holding an estimated 6.4 million bitcoin, including 1.1 million attributed to Satoshi Nakamoto, though no existing machine can do so.
Researchers disagree on when the threat could emerge, with one citing 2028 as realistic, while a new industry alliance is developing standards to help blockchains adopt quantum-resistant security.
Proposals to freeze, move or place vulnerable bitcoin in a trust have raised concerns about property rights and network neutrality, and any security upgrade would require broad coordination across the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Who gets Satoshi Nakamoto’s 1.1 million bitcoin, and, for that matter, millions more that are at risk if quantum computers become powerful enough to break the security protecting it, has been a topic of intense debate for quite some time.
Christopher Smith, CEO of quantum-resistant layer-1 blockchain Quantus, believes whoever develops that technology first could take those tokens worth billions, potentially with government backing.
“The most likely scenario is that whoever gets the first CRQC (Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computer) will take them, probably with the blessing of whichever national government,” Smith told CoinDesk. “Hopefully it’s a government that likes bitcoin.”
The security researcher and protocol engineer’s warning comes as nine crypto companies unveiled the Quantum Alliance on Thursday to develop common security standards for bitcoin, Ethereum and other blockchain networks.
The concern is that future quantum computers could reverse-engineer a wallet’s publicly visible key to uncover its secret key, allowing attackers to steal funds. The Alliance estimates that 6.4 million bitcoin, or 30.2% of the supply, have public keys already exposed. Those coins, it clarified, cannot be stolen this way today because no existing quantum computer is yet powerful enough.
The first question many are asking today is when quantum computers will actually be a threat to bitcoin. Bryn Bennett, chief revenue officer at The Vault, responded: “Nobody knows the date, but the estimates keep falling, and the risk is one we can already plan for. The question for custodians isn’t whether the date is 2028 or 2035; it’s whether you can migrate in time if it arrives early.”
Richard Carback, chief technology officer of Postquant Labs, disagreed, saying he believes 2028 is a realistic date for a machine capable of breaking today’s cryptography.
Recent research has reduced estimates of the computing power needed to attack bitcoin and Ethereum. But no existing machine can break their cryptography, and predictions about when one might arrive remain disputed.
The prospect of those BTC tokens being stolen raises yet another difficult question: should developers freeze vulnerable assets, such as Bitcoin holdings, before quantum computers can reach them? Carback says he prefers that they be moved rather than frozen, while Bennet sees a different problem.