From CoinDesk · By Omkar Godbole
This is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter 'Daybook.' Sign up here, if you haven't already.
Weeks after bitcoin’s (BTC) price chart flashed a major bullish signal, Strategy (MSTR), the largest publicly listed accumulator of the cryptocurrency, is about to do the same.
The signal, a golden cross, occurs when a security’s 50-day average price rises above its 200-day average. Some traders read the transition as a decisive bullish shift in momentum that can lead to a prolonged rally.
For MSTR, which holds $69.81 billion in bitcoin, the cross could happen as soon as Monday. Since the company began buying the largest cryptocurrency for its balance sheet in August 2020, the stock has had two such crosses, and huge rallies followed both.
The first happened on Sept. 15, 2020, with the stock at about $15.57. MSTR climbed to $127.29 by February 2021, a gain of 717%. A death cross, the opposite of golden cross, followed in January 2022. By then, the stock was at $46.83, still triple the value on the day the bullish signal first appeared.
The second came on March 2, 2023, at $25.29. The shares peaked at $473.83 in November 2024, up 1,774%. When the death cross arrived in October 2025, MSTR was at $328.40, still 1,199% higher.
It’s worth keeping in mind that the signal isn’t especially reliable. In MSTR’s case, since 1999, the shares have registered 19 golden crosses. On 11 occasions, the stock was higher three months later, and after only 10 was it higher 12 months later, according to data analyzed by CoinDesk.
That’s a record of 50% accuracy. The median 12-month return was just 3.3%, and the two worst crosses, in 2001 and 2007, were followed by a 61% loss.
Since bitcoin confirmed its golden cross on Sept. 8, it has risen by nearly 5% to $82,000, extending the rally from July lows under $60,000. The price hit a high of over $87,000 early this month.
It remains to be seen if MSTR follows bitcoin’s lead. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."
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