From CryptoPotato · By Dimitar Dzhondzhorov
Cardano’s native cryptocurrency rebounded strongly at the start of October, climbing to a five-month high near $0.28. However, bears reclaimed control, and it now trades below $0.22, down by double digits over the past week.
Here are the next key levels market participants should monitor, along with recent price predictions from popular analysts.
What Now?
X user Sssebi recently noted that ADA has been trading below the 200-day moving average (MA) for more than a year. The analyst suggested it finally has the opportunity to bounce off it and confirm the bullish trend reversal.
“If it holds, we could see a crazy ADA pump,” they added.
Just hours later, Sssebi revealed that ADA closed the daily candle above the 200 MA, stressing that a “big bounce” would now depend on trading volume.
Crypto With Gopal and Trend Rider also chipped in. The former claimed that ADA has formed a falling wedge after a prolonged downtrend, with buyers now defending the $0.21 mark.
“A breakout above $0.23 resistance could open the door towards $0.25. ADA bulls are showing signs of life – breakout confirmation is key,” he added.
For their part, Trend Rider claimed Cardano’s native token has maintained a price floor, which briefly cracked this summer when the price plunged to about $0.14. The analyst believes a monthly close above $0.23 would confirm the floor’s reclamation and suggest the breakdown was a trap. On the other hand, a rejection would mean that old support becomes resistance.
ADA’s recent exchange netflow supports the bullish perspective. Over the past several weeks, outflows have surpassed inflows, meaning investors have continued shifting from centralized platforms to self-custody, reducing immediate selling pressure.
ADA Exchange Netflow, Source: CoinGlass
The Bearish Theory
About a week ago, Ali Martinez outlined several reasons ADA could be poised for a “big correction.” He started by noting that whales offloaded more than 110 million ADA in about five days.
This development increases the coins available on the open market and could trigger a price decline (assuming demand doesn’t respond accordingly). The selling spree may also spread panic across the community, prompting smaller players to cash out as well.
Martinez also mentioned the cooling network activity, with daily active addresses down more than 40%. “Fewer active addresses suggest participation is weakening while whales are selling,” he said.
At the time, the analyst identified rising channel support around $0.24, arguing that a breakdown (which later occurred) could pave the way for a drop to the channel floor at $0.21
Most recently, X user Crypto Million described ADA’s performance as “weak” and regretted canceling their short position.