From CryptoPotato · By Jordan Lyanchev
The world’s largest corporate holder of bitcoin faces the prospect of being removed from major MSCI indexes under newly finalized eligibility rules, potentially triggering billions of dollars in passive outflows.
However, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju argued that the risk is already priced in, while Michael Saylor, Strategy’s co-founder and former CEO, has dismissed the issue as relatively unimportant to the company.
MSCI Risk Priced In?
CryptoPotato reported yesterday that MSCI finalized the new rules this week targeting companies it classified as “non-operating,” potentially putting Strategy, Metaplanet, and other digital-asset treasury firms at risk of exclusion from the Global Investable Market Indexes. The final list of affected entities is due on November 11, with the methodology taking effect at the close of November 30.
JPMorgan analysts have previously estimated that Strategy’s removal could lead to approximately $2.8 billion in passive outflows from MSTR. However, CryptoQuant’s Ki Young Ju offered a different perspective, indicating that investors may be focusing too heavily on that figure.
He explained that MSCI is primarily a fund-flow issue already reflected in MSTR’s valuation, while major Wall Street firms continue to maintain substantially higher price targets. He cited Citigroup putting MSTR at $240, Barclays at $175, and B. Riley at $195, adding that these targets have generally moved higher rather than lower.
CryptoQuant’s CEO added that Strategy’s positioning depends on more important factors, including its roughly 1x market-cap-to-Bitcoin-NAV ratio, STRC trading close to par, and billions of dollars in reserves to support dividend obligations.
Analysts don’t care about MSCI. $MSTR consensus still very bullish.
Citi $240, Barclays $175, B. Riley $195. Targets going up, not down.
MSCI is a flow story, and it’s priced in. What matters now: mNAV ~1.0x, STRC at par, $3.75B reserve covering dividends. https://t.co/NWKtUrVVaM
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) October 16, 2026
Saylor Fires Back
Speaking to Bloomberg before MSCI finalized the rules, Strategy’s former CEO said the decision was “not that important to us,” as the capital controlled through the relevant indexes is relatively small from the company’s perspective. He also attacked the reasoning behind the classification, arguing that treating oil, natural gas, land, or machinery as legitimate corporate capital while refusing to treat BTC the same way amounts to a subjective value judgment.
Saylor called MSCI’s stance a bad precedent and said digital assets remain the future regardless of whether the index provider agrees. However, the market reacted differently. MSTR experienced a substantial sell-off on Friday, dumping from a Thursday peak of over $151 to under $137 at Friday’s close.