From CryptoPotato · By Jordan Lyanchev
We have said it before, and we will say it again – the cryptocurrency landscape can change very, very quickly. About ten days ago, BTC staged a rather surprising surge to over $81,000. A month and a bit prior, it challenged $87,000 on several occasions.
Last Friday, though, it was crushed under the weight of numerous factors, such as growing macro pressure, rising inflation, an increase in Fed rate-hike odds, Wall Street turbulence, and so on.
It doesn’t really matter at this point, as it almost seems that whatever bad happens in the world, BTC takes the biggest hit. Nvidia’s boss goes all Charlie Sheen, and NVDA stock rebounds while BTC crashes. Ah, who knows. Maybe that’s why we asked AI to see if it’s all that smart.
Bears in Charge
With the current broader sentiment being deep in an ‘extreme fear’ state, let’s begin with the most bearish prediction. And it comes from ChatGPT. OpenAI’s model said its own assessment, after looking at all available data points, is that “bitcoin is no longer in a confirmed bull market.”
“The September bullish breakout has failed, and the market is showing several characteristics of a renewed bear phase. However, it is still premature to declare that the entire recovery from the summer lows is over.”
The latest correction erased approximately 75% of the August-September rally’s dollar gains, with BTC sliding toward the $66,000 demand region. The strongest evidence cited by the popular AI model is that the cryptocurrency has lost the 50-week moving average support, a signal analysts typically use to identify the beginning of a market shift.
Maybe Not So Bearish…
Grok and Perplexity shared slightly more positive opinions, with both indicating that the current market decline appears more like a sharp but historically normal pullback within a recovering/early bull phase than a confirmed return to a full-on bear market.
Grok said the July 1, 2026 low of under $58,000 is viewed by most analysts as the bear-market bottom. The subsequent recovery above key moving averages earlier in the autumn, plus long-term holder behavior and historical cycle timing, supported a claim of a new bull phase. The latest dip, which pushed BTC below some of those MAs, still means that the cryptocurrency is in a “healthy correction.”
Although Perplexity shared a similar view, it warned that the bull thesis has considerably changed and was damaged by the $20,000 drop from the September highs. This over 20% drop, aligned with BTC’s failure to hold the 50-week MA, and persistent ETF outflows mean that the new bull market call is “currently invalidated until the price reclaims those same levels.”
“The fairest characterization today is: the proclaimed bull market is on hold, not conclusively dead. The prior bullish breakout failed, so treating this as “just a normal dip” would be too complacent; but calling a bear market solely from a 21% retracement would also be premature, while BTC has not yet broken decisively below the August lows or the long-term weekly support zone,” concluded Perplexity.