From Coinpedia · By Nidhi Kolhapur
XRP’s monthly escrow unlocks have not consistently caused price declines in the past 106 unlock events since January 2018. Ripple is scheduled to release 1 billion XRP on November 1, with half a billion coming from each of two escrow accounts.
XRP’s typical unlock week saw a 0.1% decline, compared with nearly 1% during weeks without an unlock. XRP fell in 51% of unlock weeks, while it declined in 54% of other weeks.
Ripple Has Relocked 700 Million XRP Each Month
Ripple placed 55 billion XRP in escrow in December 2017, setting up a schedule to release 1 billion XRP on the first of each month. Around 31.4 billion XRP remained in escrow before the November unlock.
However, the full 1 billion XRP does not necessarily remain outside escrow. Ripple returned 700 million XRP to escrow within hours of the September and October 2026 releases. The same pattern has occurred every month since August 2025, leaving around 300 million XRP outside escrow each month.
XRP price surged on 59 of the 106 unlock days. When the comparison period was extended to two weeks, the typical unlock period was flat, while a typical two-week period without an unlock saw a decline of around 1.5%.
Bitcoin and Major News Coincided With XRP’s Biggest Moves
Some of XRP’s largest declines during unlock weeks occurred alongside sharp falls in Bitcoin.
In February 2018, XRP dropped around 40% during its worst unlock week on record, falling from approximately $1.35 to $0.82 per token. A holding of 1,000 XRP lost more than $500, while Bitcoin fell 31% over the same period.
In February 2026, XRP declined around 21%, reducing the value of 1,000 XRP from approximately $1,911 to $1,512. Bitcoin also fell 18% during those days.
Other major price movements coincided with regulatory and political developments. In December 2020, XRP fell around 61% during the month after the US Securities and Exchange Commission sued Ripple on December 22, while Bitcoin rose around 69%.
In December 2024, XRP gained approximately 60% during an unlock week, rising from around $1.47 to $2.36. The move coincided with expectations surrounding the departure of SEC Chair Gary Gensler and the outcome of the US presidential election. Bitcoin rose less than 3% during the same week.
These examples show that major market developments coincided with XRP’s largest moves, although the historical comparison alone cannot establish the cause of every price change.
Also Read : Ripple (XRP) Price Prediction 2026, 2027-2030: Will XRP Reach $5?
Recent Data Shows Some Weakness During Unlock Weeks
Crypto analyst cheeky crypto identified a period when XRP declined more frequently during unlock weeks. Since the beginning of 2024, XRP fell in 22 of 34 unlock weeks, or around two-thirds of the time.